According to Eurostat data published on Wednesday, October 21, Romania’s budget deficit reached 9.2% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, after seasonal adjustment, compared to 5.5% in the first quarter. The increase was 3.7 percentage points.
The deficit also exceeded the level of 7.7% of GDP recorded in the second quarter of 2025, by 1.5 percentage points.
Romania, the largest deficit in the European Union
In the second quarter of 2026, the largest seasonally adjusted budget deficits were recorded in Romania (9.2% of GDP), Hungary (7.2%), Poland (5.9%), Belgium and Bulgaria (5.3% each) and France (5.1%).
The European Union average was 3.5% of GDP, while in the euro area the deficit reached 3.3% of GDP.
Thus, Romania had a deficit 5.7 percentage points above the EU average and two percentage points above Hungary, the country in second place.
How does the 9.2% deficit compare to the annual target of 6%?
The 9.2% figure published by Eurostat represents the deficit in the second quarter, relative to quarterly and seasonally adjusted GDP. It does not represent the cumulative deficit in the first six months nor the deficit relative to annual GDP.
The target of approximately 6% of GDP for the end of the year refers to the deficit for the entire budget year.
Separately, the Ministry of Finance publishes the budget execution in cash, which mainly records actual receipts and payments, unlike the European ESA methodology, based on the accrual accounting principle.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the cash deficit after the first six months of 2026 was 41.03 billion lei, representing 2% of GDP, compared to 69.80 billion lei and 3.64% of GDP in the first half of 2025.
After the first nine months, the cash deficit reached 78.52 billion lei, or 3.82% of GDP, compared to 102.47 billion lei and 5.35% of GDP in the similar period in 2025.
Thus, the cash execution indicates a reduction in the deficit compared to the previous year, while the quarterly Eurostat data show a deterioration in the seasonally adjusted balance between the first two quarters of 2026.
The difference between the two indicators results from the calculation methodology and the reference periods. Therefore, the level of 9.2% of GDP in the second quarter does not automatically mean exceeding the annual target of 6%.
Eurostat’s quarterly data are provisional and subject to revision. For example, the estimate for the first quarter of 2026 was revised from 3.6% of GDP in July to 5.5% in the series published in October.
The economy has slowed, real wages have fallen, and companies are under pressure
Budgetary consolidation took place in a difficult economic context.
According to INS data published on October 9, Romania’s economy stagnated in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. In the first semester, GDP contracted by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2025, on a gross basis.
The decline in consumption was one of the main factors of economic development.
The purchasing power of employees has been affected by inflation. In May 2026, the average real wage was about 6.9% lower than in the same month the previous year. In August, the annual decline had moderated to about 0.5%, but it was already the fourteenth consecutive month of real wage decline.
Pensioners have also felt the effects of rising prices. INS data shows that the real average pension index in the second quarter of 2026 was 98.1% compared to the previous quarter, equivalent to a decrease of approximately 1.9% in purchasing power during this period.
Data from the National Trade Register Office shows that 4,782 companies and PFAs entered insolvency in the first eight months of 2026, an increase of 4.85% compared to the same period in 2025.
On the labor market, an analysis conducted by Ziarul Financiar based on INS data indicated a reduction of over 64,000 in the number of employees in June 2026 compared to June 2025.
Unpaid invoices and public investment financing
A distinct category of expenses is represented by payment obligations related to public investments.
On September 10, the Ministry of Development announced the exhaustion of available funds for the „Anghel Saligny” National Investment Program. Starting with September 11, the submission of new transfer requests was suspended pending the budget supplementation.
On October 19, Ilie Bolojan stated that there were outstanding invoices of 2.4 billion lei under the program, which could be paid by rectifying and redistributing available funds. Not all of these invoices necessarily represent arrears, or overdue payment obligations.
In the transport sector, the value of signed contracts exceeds 30 billion euros, according to Bolojan’s statements, given an average annual investment budget of approximately 6 billion euros.
The contracts are multi-year, so their total value does not represent debts due in 2026. Not all of the money related to these contracts must be paid this year, as the contracts have multiple payment terms.
PNRR and SAFE: amounts to be collected and expenses to be financed
According to data from the Ministry of Finance on October 16, Romania had collected 13.27 billion euros from the PNRR, and another 6.43 billion euros were related to the last two payment requests.
At the end of September, PNRR grant revenues totaled 22.27 billion lei, compared to payments of 27.19 billion lei. The difference was 4.92 billion lei, representing a gap between receipts and expenditures reported to that date, not a definitive loss of funds.
Separately, Romania has been allocated approximately 16.68 billion euros in loan financing through the European SAFE program. Pre-financing received in August was approximately 2.5 billion euros, and payments related to the program in the first nine months amounted to 6.34 billion lei.
These amounts cannot be added directly to the budget deficit because they represent different categories: multi-annual commitments, funds to be collected, loans and payments already made.
Currently, available public data does not allow establishing a certain total value of unpaid invoices, deferred payments and other budgetary obligations carried over to subsequent years.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s financing strategy, the estimated gross financing requirement for 2026 is approximately 278.5 billion lei. The amount includes both the financing of the budget deficit and the refinancing of the public debt that has reached maturity, estimated at approximately 150.7 billion lei.